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2023-04-22T00:00:00+02:00

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Warum muslimische Einwanderung westliche Fraunerechte bedroht

Ayaan Hirsi Ali

C. Bertelsmann 2021

Die zentralen Thesen des Buches sind

viele islamische Gesellschaften weisen Frauen einen niedrigen Status zu, unterordnen sie Männern und untergraben Frauenrechte in systematischer Weise;
der massive Zustrom islamischer Migranten nach Europa gefährdet Frauenrechte auch in Europa;
viele europäische Institutionen und Eliten verschließen die Augen vor den Gefahren, die islamische Migration für Frauenrechte darstellen und versagen im Schutz und im Fördern von Frauenrechten.

Das Buch ist verstörend zu lesen, denn es berichtet, oft detailreich in Einzelfällen und mit viel Statistik untermauert, wie Frauen Gewalt geschieht, ihre Rechte unterminiert werden, und europäische Institutionen und Eliten versagen, diese zu schützen.

Die Beispiele und Statistiken sind hauptsächlich aus Deutschland, Holland, Österreich, Schweden und Großbritannien. Hirsi Ali ist der Meinung, dass Integration islamische Migranten in den letzten sechzig Jahren nur schlecht funktioniert hat, weil auch Einwanderer der zweiten Generation an frauenfeindlichen Werten und Bildern festhalten. Hirsi Ali fürchtet, dass nicht europäische Werte in die islamische Welt exportiert werden, sondern eher islamische Werte nach Europa dringen und auch die Rechte europäischer Frauen bedrohen.

Anpasser, Bedroher, Fanatiker, Drifter

Immigranten kann man in vier Kategorien beschreiben:

Anpasser nehmen die Werte des Gastlandes aus, versuchen ihren Kindern eine gute Ausbildung zu ermöglichen und streben ein Leben ähnlich dem der Menschen des Gastlandes an.

Bedroher sind meist junge Männer, die in der eigenen Familie und in der Öffentlichkeit zu einer Bedrohung werden. Oft brechen sie die Schule ab, begehen kleine und große Straftaten, verbringen Zeit im Gefängnis. Alkohol und Drogenmissbrauch verschlimmern ihr Fehlverhalten und die meisten von ihnen sind untauglich für den Arbeitsmarkt.

Fanatiker sind religiöse Eiferer die die Freiheiten des Gastlandes benutzen, um eine intolerante, fundamentalistische Version des Islams zu verbreiten. Sie scheinen of gut integriert, da sie die Sprache beherrschen, einen gutbezahlten Job haben, die Funktionsweisen des Gastlandes verstehen. Aber sie lehnen die lehnen die liberalen Werte des Gastlandes grundsätzlich ab und bekämpfen sie nach Möglichkeit aktiv.

Drifter haben oft keine oder nur geringe formale Ausbildung, kommen für gutbezahlte und interessante Jobs nicht in Frage, leben zum Teil von Sozialleistungen, und bemühen sich nicht aktiv, das Gastland zu verstehen und sich dessen Werte anzueignen. Sie schicken ihre Kinder in die lokale Schule, verbringen viel Zeit in der örtlichen, muslimischen Gemeinde und mit Verwandten und Bekannten ihres Herkunftslandes. Zufällige Ereignisse können Drifter zu Anpassern, Bedrohern oder Fanatikern werden lassen.

Diese Kategorisierung ist nachvollziehbar, doch die interessante Frage ist, wie groß die einzelnen Gruppen sind. Hirsi Ali geht der Frage leider nicht im Detail nach, resümiert aber

Wenn die europäischen Eliten ehrlich mit sich selbst sind, werden
sie einräumen, dass eine nicht unbeträchtliche Zahl der vor der
Flüchchtlingswelle zugewanderten Muslime in eine oder andere der
letztgenannten drei Kategorien fiel: bedrohung, Fanatiker oder
Drifter. Die Anpasser sind auch da, aber sie sind in der
Minderheit - vor allem wenn es um das Frauenbild muslimischer
Zuwanderer geht.

(S 248)

Kulturunterschiede

Cultural Map. Quelle: Inglehart-Weizel Cultural Map, World Values Survey, Wave 6 [20120-2014] Link

Es gibt Versuche, die essentiellen Unterschiede verschiedener Kulturen zu verstehen und zu benennen. In der World Values Survey werden Kulturräume entlang zweier Achsen lokalisiert: die “Traditionel vs. säkular/rational” Achse gibt an, wie sehr eine Kultur von rationalen Überlegungen bestimmt wird oder von tradierten Verhaltensmustern. Die “Überleben vs. selbst-expressiv” Achse beschreibt, wie sehr Individuen sich als individuelle Personen behaupten und abheben wollen, und wie sehr sehr sie vom Wunsch beseelt sind, ihren eigenen Wünschen und Sehnsüchten nachzugehen, oder ob sie versuchen sich möglichst an ihre kulturelle Umgebung anzupassen. In der entstehenden Karte liegen das protestantische Europa und das islamische Afrika an gegenüberliegenden Polen, was die Schwierigkeiten verständlich macht.

Der Soziologe Dan Seligson und die Wirtschaftshistorikerin Anne McCants vertreten aber die Auffassung, dass ein zentraler Kern der kulturellen Unterschiede in der Polygamie begründet ist. Dan Seligson wird folgendermaßen zitiert:

Ich habe zigtausend Modelle laufen lassen, die bestimmte Parameter
kombinieren, um die Ursachen von Gewalt gegen Frauen in
verschiedenen Gesellschaften im Zeitablauf zu finden, Ich verfolge
die kumulativen kulturellen Effekte, die Einstellungen gegenüber
Frauen im Durchschnitt anzeigen. Diese Einstellungen reichen bis
weit in die Zeit vor Aufkommen des Monotheismus zurück, sogar vor
die Zeit von Stammeskulturen. Der Islam taucht dabei überhaupt
nicht auf, und auch der Kolonialismus nicht. Es ist die Polygamie,
das Eherecht, das Misstrauen und patriarchalische Gewalt gegenüber
Frauen hervorbringt. Und das historische Vermächtnis der Polygamie
kann über viele Generationen zurückverfolgt werden - sie treibt
die gesellschaftliche Fieberkurve hoch und schafft eine
feindselige, grimmige Kultur.

(S 206)

Hirsi Ali trägt ihre Thesen überzeugend vor, solide durch Fakten untermauert und es ist schwer, ihnen nicht zuzustimmen. Sie wendet sich keineswegs gegen Migration, sondern will, dass Europäer nicht die Augen vor den Problemen und den misslungen Aspekten der Immigration verschließen, da der Prozess der Integration nur verbessert werden kann, wenn deren Schwierigkeiten ehrlich und präzise Anerkannt werden.

Ayaan Hirsi Ali ist eine mutige und glühende Kämpferin für Frauenrechte und hat einen bemerkenswerten Lebenslauf. Sie wurde 1969 in Mogadishu, Somalia geboren. Ihre Familie zog 1977 nach Saudi Arabien, dann nach Äthiopien und lies sich schließlich 1980 in Nairobi, Kenia, nieder. 1992 beantragte sie Asyl in den Niederlanden um einer arrangierte Heirat zu entgehen und erhielt bald eine Aufenthaltserlaubnis. Nach einer Reihe von kurzfristigen Jobs, unter anderem als Putzfrau und Übersetzerin, inskribierte sie an der Universität Leiden und erhielt 2000 ihren MSc in Political Science.

By Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, Link

Hirsi Ali trat der konservativ-liberalen Partei Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie (VVD) bei und wurde 2003 ins Parlament gewählt. Obwohl in jungen Jahren eine devote Muslima wurde sie im Laufe der Jahre immer kritischer zum Islam. 2004 arbeitete sie mit Theo van Gogh an dessen Film Submission, der die Behandlung von Frauen in islamischen Gesellschaften kritisierte. Van Gogh wurde im November 2004 von einem radikal-islamischen Terrorist ermordet, der eine Todesdrohung für Hirsi Ali an dessen toten Körper anheftete. Daraufhin wurde sie geschützt und zeitweise versteckt. Auch entwickelte sich eine öffentliche Kontroverse um ihren Asylantrag von 1992. Schließlich verließ sie die Niederlande 2006 und übersiedelte in die USA. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick sagte im Mai 2006, “we recognise that she is a very courageous and impressive woman and she is welcome in the US.”

(AJ April 2023)

Die Erweiterung

2023-03-18T00:00:00+01:00

Die Erweiterung

Robert Menasse

Suhrkamp 2022

Der Plot ist vielversprechend. Albanien will der EU beitreten, doch gibt es in der EU die unterschiedlichsten Interessen, die im Buch stellvertretend durch Frankreich, Polen und die Beamten der EU Kommission dargestellt werden. Um in der EU Aufmerksamkeit zu erregen, plant der Albanische Ministerpräsident die Einigung aller Albaner auf dem Balkan in den Raum zu stellen und lässt eine originalgetreue Kopie des Helms des Albanischen Helden Skanderbeg herstellen. Die albanische Opposition will diese Pläne durchkreuzen und lässt den originalen Skanderbeg Helm aus einem Wiener Museum stehlen.

Ideenreich, gut recherchiert und oft witzig werden verschiedene Handlungsfäden entworfen, die den polnischen Ministerpräsidenten, einen Wiener Kriminalbeamten, Interpol, Kommissionsbeamte aus Österreich, Irland, Polen und Frankreich, die Albanische Mafia in Italien, romantische Beziehungen und den Beraterstab des Albanischen Ministerpräsidenten umfassen.

Leider werden diese Fäden nicht zusammengeführt, sonder verlieren sich und werden zum Ende hin immer unglaubwürdiger. Das Ende selbst ist konfus und völlig unspannend.

(AJ März 2023)

Das Habsburgerreich - Inspiration für Europa?

2023-03-05T00:00:00+01:00

Das Habsburgerreich - Inspiration für Europa?

Eine Spurensuche

Caroline de Gruyter

böhlau Verlag, 2022

Caroline de Gruyter ist eine niederländische Journalistin und schreibt unter anderem für die Zeitung NRC Handelsblad. Ein ihr wichtiges Thema, über das sie seit mehr als 20 Jahren von Brüssel, Wien, Oslo und Genf schreibt, ist Europa. Als sie mehrere Jahre in Wien lebte, wurde sie offensichtlich von der österreichischen Geschichte fasziniert. In ihrem Buch, dass aus dem holländischen ins deutsche, französische und schwedische übersetzt wurde, nähert sie sich der Geschichte des Habsburgerreiches mit einem vergleichenden Blick zur Europäischen Union und sie findet bei allen Unterschieden einige denkenswerte Gemeinsamkeiten.

In seinem 600 jährigen Bestehen war das Habsburgerreich immer divers, bestehend aus Deutschen, Italienern, Slowenen, Kroaten, Ungarn, Tschechen, Slowaken, Polen, Rumänen und Ukrainern, wenn man von den zeitweiligen spanischen, holländischen und Überseebesitzungen absieht. Da es sich nie durch besondere militärische Stärke oder grausame Unterdrückung auszeichnete, war es immer um den Ausgleich der verschiedensten Interessen der Völker innerhalb des Reiches und der Großmächte in Europa bemüht. Es überdauerte Jahrhunderte in einem immerwährenden Ringen um Kompromisse, in einem andauernden Bestreben, den verschiedenen Interessen soweit wie nötig und möglich entgegen zukommen.

Die meisten habsburgischen Kaiser taten alles, um für Frieden,
Wohlstand und Gerechtigkeit zu sorgen. Besser ein mittelmässiger
Frieden als ein glorreicher Krieg, meinte Kaiserin Maria Theresia.

(S 199-200)

Eine interessante Ähnlichkeit stellt die Beamtenschaft dar. Die Beamtenschaft des Habsburgerreiches, beginnend mit Maria Theresia und Joseph II im 18 Jahrhundert, war sehr kompetent und loyal, einerseits gegenüber der Idee des Ganzen, des Habsburgerreiches, und andererseits gegenüber den Interessen der Bürgern und Bauern im Sinne von Gerechtigkeit und Wohlleben. Sie wendeten sich in der Regel stark gegen Partikularinteressen, was von den lokalen Eliten meist nicht behauptet werden konnte.

Das Habsburgerreich hat sich oft mehr um die Interessen der Bürger, Völker, um Gerechtigkeit bemüht, als die lokalen Eliten.

 Der ungarische Adel unterdrückte die ungarischen Bauern. Es waren
 die Habsburger, die den Adel dazu zwangen, den Bauern immer mehr
 Rechte zu gewähren.
 
 Der Nationalismus in Belgien hat seinen Ursprung im belgischen
 Adel, der beleidigt war, weil die Habsburger einige ihrer
 Privilegien gestrichen hatten. Die Strassenschilder zeugen immer
 noch davon, dass das Volk auf der Seite der Habsburger stand.
 
 (S 178)

In Europa ist es heute ähnlich. Die Brüsseler Beamten sind ausgesprochen kompetent und loyal gegenüber der Idee Europa und setzen sich konsistent für Gerechtigkeit über den ganzen Kontinent, bessere Umwelt-, Lebensmittel-, medizinische und soziale Standards ein, und sie vertreten selten die Interessen der Industrie oder einzelnen Ländern. Von den nationalen und regionalen Regierungen und Eliten in Deutschland, Frankreich, Österreich oder Italien kann man das nur in weit geringerem Ausmaß behaupten.

Die meisten der von der EU erlassenen Regularien setzen Verbesserungen für fast alle Bürger durch, oft gegen die Interessen großer Industrieverbände und nationaler Eliten.

 Der EU wird oft vorgeworfen, dass sie die Interessen
 multinationaler Unternehmungen vertrete. Aber sie trifft ziemlich
 oft Entscheidungen, die den großen Firmen gegen den Strich
 gehen. 
 ...
 Die EU stellt sich also regelmäßig auf die Seite der Bürger,
 genau wie das Habsburgerreich damals. Und beide werden
 (bzw. wurden) in der Folge mit dem Vorwurf konfrontiert, nicht
 patriotisch zu sein.
 
 (S 178)

Eine weitere Ähnlichkeit stellt das ständige Ringen um Ausgleich von Interessen dar, das den einzelnen Völkern aber meist substantielle Vorteile bietet. Daher haben sich im Habsburgerreich die meisten Nationen ständig über die Wiener Herrschaft beklagt, aber niemand wollte das Reich verlassen.

 .. die eignesinnigen Ungarn ständig Widerstand gegen die "Wiener
 Vorherrschaft" leisteten, aber nicht im Traum daran dachten, das
 Habsburgerreich zu verlassen. Aus ihrem Verbleib zogen sie einen
 Nutzen.
 
 (S 200)

Das ist heute in Europa nicht anders, wobei leider vermutlich damals wie heute gilt, dass Vielen der Wert des Ganzen erst bewusst wird, wenn es es nicht mehr gibt.

De Gruyter findet eine Reihe von überraschenden Parallelen zwischen den eigentlich so unterschiedlichen Gebilden, dem Habsburgerreich und der modernen EU.

beide sind Weltmeister im Hinausschieben, Verzögern,
Fortwurschteln, und im Schliessen von Kompromissen. Es ist nie
fertig. Es ist nie perfekt. Nie. Das ist kein Zufall. Das liegt in
der Natur der Sache. Es gibt nämlich kaum eine andere Möglichkeit.

(S 199)

So trifft wohl Grillparzers Beobachtung aus dem 19. Jahrhundert über das Habsburgerreich auch auf die EU des 21. Jahrhunderts zu:

Auf halben Wegen und zu halber Tat
mit halben Mitteln zauderhaft zu streben

(Franz Grillparzer, Bruderstreit im Hause Habsburg)
(zitiert auf Seite 200)

Obgleich diese Beschreibung dem beobachtenden Europäer von heute oft als qualvolle Wirklichkeit erscheint, so dies auch ein Ausdruck von ehrlichem und fleißigem Bemühen Mehrwert für möglichst Viele zu schaffen.

Bleibt noch die Frage, warum das Habsburgerreich zerfiel. Dieser Frage geht auch de Gruyter nach. Das Standardnarrative lautet, dass die Bürger im Laufe des 19. Jahrhunderts gebildeter wurden, eine Modernisierung des Staates wünschten, und der zunehmende Nationalismus die Selbstbestimmung der einzelnen Völker in den Mittelpunkt der politischen Entwürfe stellte. Aufgrund dieser historischen Entwicklungslinien sind multinationale Staaten wie Österreich-Ungarn, das osmanische Reich und das Zarenreich am Anfang des 20. Jahrhunderts quasi zwangsläufig zerfallen. So steht es auch oft bis heute in den Schulbüchern.

Aber diese Interpretation ist heute laut de Gruyter nicht mehr haltbar. Zwar gab es im Habsburgerreich ein inneres Ringen zwischen den Völkern um Vorteile und Rechte, aber kaum jemand erhoffte sich in einem kleineren Staat größere Vorteil.

Ja, die Völkjer wollten alle mehr Rechte. Sie waren neidisch
aufeinander und behielten einander ständig im Auge, um sicher zu
gehen, dass andere nicht bevorzugt wurden. Sie liebten ihre
"eigene" Musik und sonstige kulturelle Ausdrucksformen. Zugleich
war die Motivation für die Selbständigkeit gering. Sogar Ungarn, wo
noch heute über die Habsburger gesprochen wird, als ob es sich um
eine ausländische Besatzungmacht gehandelt habe, wollte um keinen
Preis aus der Doppelmonarchie. Die Ungarn hatten mehr Mitsprache
als sonst jemand. Sie konnten nahezu alles blockieren. In ihrer
Hälfte der Doppelmonarchie konnten sie nach 1867 schalten und
walten wie immer sie wollten. 
...
Es gab noch einen Grund, weshalb Hardcore-Nationalisten mit
separatistischen Ideen vor 1914 kaum Fuß fassen konnten. Das
Habsburgerreich war nicht so starr, wie immer behauptet wird. Der
vorletzte Kaiser Franz Josef, mag zwar kein uberzeugter Demokrat
gewesen sein, aber er führte sehr wohl verschiedene Reformen
durch. Es wurde ein Parlament ins Leben gerufen, in dem alle
Völker vertreten waren. Dem Parlament wurden immer mehr Rechte
übertragen. Allmählich wurde im Laufe der Jahre das Wahlrecht
erweitert. 
... 
Niemand war jemals ganz zufrieden. Alles geschah auf Grundlage
von Konsens und Kompromissen. Aber alle hatten immer Aussicht auf
gewisse Verbesserungen.

(Seite 109)

Warum also zerfiel das Kaiserreich? Es war der Krieg. Bis 1914 waren die meisten Bürger ziemlich zufrieden.

Die Globalisierung sei vorangeschritten. Die Wirtschaft habe
gebrummt. Die Menschen hätten fortwährend mehr Leistung vom Staat
verlangt und diese oft auch bekommen.
...

Aber dies änderte sich als der Krieg begann. Und zwar aus zwei
Gründen. Zunächst ging das ganze Geld und alle Mittel plötzlich an
die Front, vier Jahre lang. Der Krieg verlief katastrophal. Von
vielen Bürgern kehrten Familienmitglieder und Freunde in
Leichensäcken zurück. Der Staat musste zahlreiche Leistungen
streichen um den Krieg finanzieren zu können. Viele Menschen
verloren ihre Arbeit, Sie wurden zu spät oder gar nicht
bezahlt. Dadurch änderte sich ihre Sicht auf den Staat. 
...
Sie wurden unzufrieden, waren allmählich offen für
Alternativen. Der Krieg trieb sie in die Arme der Nationalisten.

Zweitens war es der Krieg der zu einer Art "Staatsstreich"
innerhalb des Kaiserreichs führte. Militäroperationen hatten
plötzlich Priorität. Konservative Generäle übernahmen de facto die
Leitung von Franz Joseph. Sie hatten nie verheimlicht, dass sie ihn
für einen Schwächling hielten. Sie hielten die vom Kaiser
eingeleiteten Reformen für entbehrlich. Dass er Gewerkschaften
erlaubte und Arbeiter demonstrieren ließ, fanden sie lächerlich.
...
Sie schaften das Parlament wieder ab und beschränkten die
Bürgerrechte ... Auch dies machte viele Bürger wütend. Sie fühlten
sich hintergangen und waren immer enttäuschter vom Väterchen
Staat. Die Nationalisten nutzten die Unzufriedenheit dankbar aus. 

(Seite 109)

Der Stress des Krieges war zu groß, zumal es mit der Neuordnung in Nationalstaaten eine alternative Organisationsform gab, die sich viele vorstellen konnten, auch wenn praktisch alle die Misere und chaotischen Zustände der Übergangsjahre 1918-1923 gravierend falsch einschätzten.

Der Krieg schwächte den Staat in fataler Weise. Er hörte auf, ein
Rechtsstaat zu sein und sich um seine Bürger zu kümmern. Die
Menschen wandten sich gegeneinander, ethnische Gruppe gegen
ethnische Gruppe. Sprachgruppe gegen Sprachgruppe. Peter Judson
meint, der Krieg habe das Gefühl gegenseitiger Solidarität
zwischen Bürger und Staat erodieren lassen und allmählich die
Existenzberechtigung des Kaisserreichs unterminiert.

(seite 110)

Wenn diese Entsprechung zwischen Habsburgerreich und EU zutreffend ist, würde dies bedeuten, dass die EU soviel Mehrwert für ihre Bürger und Mitglieder generiert, dass sie noch sehr lange existieren und sich weiterentwickeln könnte. Aber einen wirklich großen Stress, wie ein jahrelanger, entbehrungsreicher Krieg oder eine jahrelange wirtschaftliche Misere, würde sie nicht aushalten.

Trotz aller Unvollkommenheiten und Sorgen können begeisterte Europäer von heute Mut aus der Tatsache schöpfen, dass das Habsburgerreich 600 Jahre bestand hatte, was übrigens länger war als jede der chinesischen Dynastien, weil es durch dieses beständige Ringen um kleine Verbesserungen, Vermeiden von leichtsinnigen Abenteuern und größeren Katastrophen, relevant für die Völker und Bürger war und Mehrwert brachte.

(AJ März 2023)

Das Ende des Kapitalismus

2023-02-12T00:00:00+01:00

Das Ende des Kapitalismus

Warum Wachstum und Klimaschutz nicht vereinbar sind

Ulrike Hermann

Kiepenheuer & Witsch, 2022

Ulrike Hermann ist eine profunde Kennerin des Kapitalismus und seiner Geschichte. Sie scheint auch eine Bewunderin dieses Systems und und seiner Erfolge zu sein. Deshalb sind ihre Argument, aufgrund derer sie zum Schluss kommt, dass der Kapitalismus nicht zukunftsfähig ist, umso interessanter.

Im Buch wird der Kapitalismus mit dem Wirtschaftssystem, das sich in Europa seit etwa 1700 durchgesetzt hat, gleichgesetzt. Er ist zeitlich deckungsgleich mit der industriell-technischen Revolution, die in England zu Beginn des 18. Jahrhunderts begann (1712 wurde die erste Dampfmaschine von Thomas Newcomen zum Abpumpen von Wasser aus einem Bergwerk entwickelt) und bis heute andauert. Hermann beschreibt kurz die Geschichte dieser Periode und arbeitet die, ihrer Ansicht nach wichtigsten Eigenschaften des Kapitalismus heraus. Dies sind:

Produktion und Konsum bedingen einander gegenseitig. Nach Hermann wurden im 18. Jahrhundert Maschinen gerade in Enggland eingesetzt, weil dort die Löhne und Kosten der Arbeit relativ hoch waren, und der Einsatz und die stetige Verbesserung der Maschinen sich deshalb lohnten. Da es Mangel an Arbeitskraft gab, stiegen die Löhne weiter, was den Konsum förderte und in der Folge die industrielle Produktion weiter anschob. Hermann gibt Beispiele von Ländern und Gegenden, in denen die Lohnkosten niedrig blieben und keine industrielle Entwicklung stattfand. Ihr bestes Beispiel ist der Vergleich der Süd- und Nordstaaten des 19. Jahrhunderts in den USA. Im Süden wurden die Lohnkosten durch die Sklaverei niedrig gehalten und eine industrielle Entwicklung fand kaum statt. Im Norden stiegen die Lohnkosten, ähnlich wie im Vereinigten Königreich, und es fand eine rasante industrielle Entwicklung statt.
Der Kapitalismus ist ein dynamischer Prozess, keine statische Ordnung. Er wird befeuert durch eine wechselseitige Bedingung von steigenden Löhnen, steigendem Konsum und stetiger Innovation und Effizienzsteigerung in der Produktion. Dies ist ein Prozess, der gerade von der Dynamik lebt. Fällt ein Element in dieser Kette aus, bricht der ganze Prozess zusammen, was das Ende des kapitalistischen Systeme wäre.
Weil es ein Prozess ist, lebt es von der Dynamik und man kann es nicht stoppen, ohne es zu zerstören. Es ist mit einer Fahrradfahrt vergleichbar. Wenn das Fahrrad zum Stillstand kommt, fällt es um. Dieses kapitalistische System braucht also Wachstum. Es ist nicht stabil, wenn das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) gleich bleibt oder schrumpft. Ein Null-Wachstum hätte nämlich zur Folge, dass keine Investitionen in Produktionssteigerung stattfinden, was zur Verminderung der Anzahl der Arbeitskräfte führen wurde, was in Folge zu einer Verminderung der Kaufkraft führt, und was schließlich zu einer Verminderung der Produktion führt, und so weiter. Ein Null-Wachstum ist also nicht stabil sondern führt zu einem anhaltenden Schrumpfprozess, der sich erst auf deutlich tieferem Niveau wieder stabilisiert.

Dieses Bild des Kapitalismus ist der Hintergrund, vor dem das Buch die Frage stellt, was ist zu tun um die Klimakrise zu meistern und einen Anstieg der globalen Durchschnittstemperatur zu vermeiden.

Weltweite Energieproduktion aufgeschlüsselt nach primären Energiequellen von. ( ourworldindata).

Hermann geht dann der Reihe nach mögliche Antworten durch.

Solaranlagen und Windkraftwerke sind die große Hoffnung, wenn es gelingen soll, die Erderwärmung in erträglichem Rahmen zu begrenzen.

Doch die Sonne scheint nur tagsüber, im Winter steht sie tief und der Wind bläst manchaml mehr, manchmal weniger und manchmal gar nicht. Obwohl sich die Technologie zur Gewinung von Energie von Sonne und Wind in den letzten Jahren dramatisch verbessert hat und die Erzeugerpreise dadurch drastisch gesunken sind, stellt die Variabilität eine grosse Herausforderung dar. Neben der temporalen Variabilität gibt es auch eine geographische. In der Nordsee bläst es viel, in der Sahara scheint die Sonne regelmäßig und in beiden Regionen gibt es viel Platz für Solar- und Windanlagen, während die Voraussetzungen in manch dicht besiedelten, hochindustrialisierten Gebieten Europas wesentlich ungünstiger sind. Daher ist es neben der effizienten und kostengünstigen Produktion genauso wichtig, dass die Energie gespeichert und transportiert werden kann. Während leistungsfähige Stromleitungen über lange Entfernungen zu verlegen teuer und aufwendig ist, gibt es noch keine technologische Lösung für die Speicherung, die kostengünstig in großem Umfang umgesetzt werden könnte. Weder Batterien, noch Wasserstoff noch Pumpspeicher können dies zur Zeit leisten. Zu den Herausforderungen der Kosten und Effizienz kommt die schiere Größenordnung der Aufgabe. Im Jahre 2021 ist der Anteil an von Wind und Sonne an der gesamten Energieproduktion weltweit etwa 4,2%. In 25 Jahren auf einen Anteil von auch nur 70% zu kommen, ist praktisch nicht zu schaffen. Dies gilt weltweit aber auch für Europa oder Länder wie Deutschland. Es wird möglich sein, mit nur Sonne und Wind als primäre Energiequellen auszukommen, aber es wird eher 50-70 Jahre dauern. Das bedeutet, dass das EU Ziel, bis 2050 klimaneutral zu werden, kaum realistisch ist. Dies wäre aber notwendig, um die Ziele des Pariser Abkommens zu erreichen, nämlich die Klimaerwärmung auf 1,5-2 Grad C zu beschränken.

Aus diesen zwei Erkenntnissen, nämlich (1) dass unser kapitalistisches System Wachstum braucht um stabil zu bleiben, und (2) dass die dazu nötige Energieerzeugung nicht mit den Pariser Klimazielen kompatibel ist, schließt Hermann, dass die einzige Möglichkeit eine Klimakatastrophe zu vermeiden, eine radikale Abkehr von unserem derzeitigen Wirtschaftssystem notwendig macht. Das neue Wirtschaftsregime müsste eine radikale Schrumpfung unserer Weltwirtschaft erlauben. Für Deutschland schätzt sie, dass eine Schrumpfung auf den Stand der 1970er Jahre ausreichen würde, um es weltweit allen Ländern, die noch unter diesem Niveau liegen, zu erlauben, dasselbe Entwicklungsniveau zu erreichen.

Hermann’s These ist, dass die Klimaveränderung das Ende des kapitalistischen Systems von heute so oder so erzwingen wird, und dass damit unsere Wahl darin besteht, wie geordnet oder chaotisch der Übergang stattfindet. Welche neue Ordnung könnte nun anstelle unseres jetzigen Wirtschaftssystems treten, das eine geordnete Schrumpfung ohne Krieg, Bürgerkrieg und Hungersnöte erlaubt?

Hermann ist in der Geschichte fündig geworden und meint dass die Kriegswirtschaft Großbritanniens 1939-1945 ein Vorbild sein könnte. Großbritannien war vom Krieg überrascht worden, reagierte dann aber entschlossen. Es stellte innerhalb kürzester Zeit seine Wirtschaft um. Der Staat übernahm die Kontrolle darüber, was produziert werden sollte, aber nicht wie. Fabriken verblieben weiterhin privat aber der Staat gab vor, wieviele Kanonen, Patronen, Panzer und Gasmasken hergestellt werden sollten. Er verteilte die knappen Resourcen von Arbeitskräften und Lebensmitteln, was Kriegsmaschinerie beförderte aber von der Bevölkerung gut akzeptiert wurde.

Die Mengen- und Preiskontrollen waren in Großbritannien ungemein
populär. Wie die britische Regierung bereits 1941 feststellen
konnte, war das Rationierungsprogramm "einer der größten Erfolge
an der Heimatfron". Die staatlich verordnete Gleichmacherei erwies
sich als ein Segen: Ausgerechnet im Krieg waren die unteren
Schichten besser versorgt als je zuvor. In Friedenszeiten hatte
ein Drittel der  Briten nicht genug Kalorien erhalten, weitere 20%
waren zuimindest teilweise unterernährt. Nun, mitten im krieg, war
die Bevölkerung so gesund wie nie, wobei die "Fitnesss der Babys
und Schulkinder besonders hervorstach".

Die Rationierungsprogramme waren so beliebt, weil jeder Brite
genau das Gleiche bekam.

(S 240)

Trotz eines radikalen Umbaus der Wirtschaft und Rückgang des Konsums blieb Großbritannien eine Demokratie, die Gesellschaft hielt zusammen und unterstützte diese Maßnahmen.

Der Konsum fiel um ein Drittel - und zwar in kürzester
Zeit. Dieser enorme Rück- und Umbau macht die britische
Kriegswirtschaft zu einem faszinierenden Modell für heute: Der
deutsche Verbrauch muss ähnlich drastisch sinken, wenn das Klima
gerettet werden soll. Allerdings muss niemand fürchten, dass es
wieder nur Kartoffel, Brot und zwei Kleider pro Jahr geben
könnte. So trist würde es nicht werden. In den vergangenen 80
Jahren ist die deutsche Wirtschaft real um das Zehnfache
gewachsen. Selbst wenn von diesem Wohlstand nur die Hälfte übrig
bliebe, wären wir immer noch so reich wie im Jahr 1978.

(S 241)

Das Beispiel zeigt, dass ein Umbau der Wirtschaft möglich ist, wenn das kapitalistische System durch eine “private Planwirtschaft” ersetzt wird, in der der Staat wichtige Entscheidungen der Ressourcenverteilung trifft, sich die Bürger aber mitgenommen und fair behandelt fühlen.

Das Buch ist gut argumentiert und überzeugt mit seinen Hauptthesen. Mir bleiben zwei große Fragezeichen: (1) Wie rasch kann der Umbau zur Kilmaneutralität tatsächlich geschehen? Ist Hermann zu pesimistisch und könnte es uns nicht doch noch gelingen, mit den Mitteln des “ New Green Deals” die große Katastrophe abzuwenden? (2) Ist die britische Kriegswirtschaft 1939-45 tatsächlich ein brauchbares Modell für uns heute? Zum einen müsste ja nicht nur Deutschland sondern zumindest alle Industrienationen inklusive USA, China, Indien und Brasilien mitmachen. Zum zweiten fokussiert die Klimakrise unsere kommunale Aufmerksamkeit weit weniger gut als ein Angriffskrieg eines Nachbarn. Und zum dritten, müssten wir die “Klimakriegswirtschaft” nicht nur sechs sondern 60 Jahre durchhalten.

Trotzdem ist der Vorschlag faszinierend und stellt eine der ganz wenigen realistisch scheinenden Szenarien dar, wie wir aus dieser selbst verschuldeten Katastrophe wieder herauskommen, und das Schlimmste vermeiden können.

(AJ February 2023)

Atlas of AI

2023-02-11T00:00:00+01:00

Atlas of AI

Kate Crawford

Yale University Press, 2021

This book is not about Artificial Intelligence as a computer science technology, but about its impact in our society. It is meant as a map of AI in our world, but not a geometric map, but rather a map that shows where AI interacts with our physical world and our societies. The book is structured in six main chapters along the main locations of interaction and impact:

Resources in terms of minerals and energy: mining and energy consumption,
Labor in terms of the human employers and work force that facilitates and sustains AI,
Data collected and used for training AI systems,
Classification: how AI techniques are used to categorize the world and what impact its way of categorization has on human societies,
Affect: how human facial expressions are interpreted by AI systems as emotional states and the impact of this particular way of interpretation on human societies,
The state: how the state, together with large corporations, use AI to perceive of and operate in human societies,
Power in terms of how AI influences the power systems in our societies.

Resources

The book’s thesis is that modern AI technology has a profound impact on human societies and it starts out by illuminating the enormous resources required by the operation of AI systems. Modern computer infrastructure needs almost all elements of the periodic system, some of which are more difficult to extract than others. AI is not alone in using this infrastructure with electrification and digitalization being other major trends. But they all combine in intertwined ways as the transformation of the car industry toward electric and self-driving vehicles illustrates, and AI systems are a rapidly growing consumer of resources. The first chapter explores how the mining of minerals like copper, cobalt, lithium, gold, tin, tungsten, tantalum, neodymium, germanium, etc. pollute the environment and wreck havoc on the local societies and nations where they are extracted. It fuels corruption, nepotism, militarization, conflicts and large scale violence because of the large profits to be extracted together with the minerals.

An even more profound impact of AI on our environment is caused by its energy needs. One example of the energy hunger of AI is found in a paper by Emma Strubell et al. from 2019. It compares a single machine learning system with an average US car and found that the carbon footprint of training of that system is about 284 tons of carbon dioxide, which corresponds to the footprint of five average cars during their lifetime including manufacturing and fuel consumption. As a reference, the footprint of 1 ton CO₂ per person per year is considered to be climate neutral; the average European produces 6.5 ton CO₂/year. The machine learning system studied by Strubell and her colleagues is a natural language transformer model, no unlike to ChatGPT, which has made furor last year. Belonging to a more recent generation of language models, ChatGPT produced almost certainly many times as much CO₂ of the above figure for training, not to speak of its footprint during operation, when we all use it. Machine learning systems are incredibly power hungry with a steep, exponential upwards trend. There are estimates that by 2040 the total ICT infrastructure will contribute as much as 14% to the worlds total carbon footprint, which means it becomes a major contributing sector, like traffic and agriculture. AI is not the only user of ICT infrastructure but a significant one and growing quickly.

Labor

The next chapter of the book, on labor, illuminates the curious fact that an army of cheap laborers is required to facilitate the wonders of modern AI systems. One of the most fascinating success stories of AI in the last ten years is object recognition in images. The recent hype in Deep Neural Networks (DNN) started in 2012 with AlexNet when it blew away the competition in the ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC). AlexNet has been developed by Alex Krizhevsky and published with Ilya Sutskever and Geoffrey Hinton, from the University of Toronto. It is the root of a class of Convolutional Neural Networks that has since then experienced a Cambrian explosion resulting in a huge diversity of networks that vastly vary in size, shape and complexity, and have since been applied to all possible applications.

Today these DNNs can identify objects in images with speed, precision and reliability that outperform humans. However, they are machine learning algorithms and have to be trained with a very large data set. The instructions for the 2012 LSVRC competition read:

The validation and test data for this competition will consist of
150,000 photographs, collected from flickr and other search
engines, hand labeled with the presence or absence of 1000 object
categories. The 1000 object categories contain both internal nodes
and leaf nodes of ImageNet, but do not overlap with each other. A
random subset of 50,000 of the images with labels will be released
as validation data included in the development kit along with a
list of the 1000 categories. The remaining images will be used for
evaluation and will be released without labels at test time. 

The training data, the subset of ImageNet containing the 1000
categories and 1.2 million images, will be packaged for easy
downloading. The validation and test data for this competition are
not contained in the ImageNet training data (we will remove any
duplicates).

The training set consists of 1.2 million images that have been labeled, which means that the object to be identified is marked with a rectangular bounding box. Who has done the labeling? It was mostly done by an internet service called the Amazon Mechanical Turk. There everyone with Internet access can offer their service to do all kinds of tasks like labeling images. Due to a fierce worldwide competition the labor cost per hour is driven very low.

ImageNet would become, for a time, the world's largest academic
user of Amazon's Mechanical Turk, deploying an army of piecemeal
workers to sort an average of fifty images a minute into thousands
of categories.

(p 108)

Up to today, obtaining large amounts of high quality training data is a central challenge for most machine learning applications, and it is usually solved by employing an army of human laborers for rock bottom salaries.

It is indeed a general phenomenon that AI systems only work well when complemented by human laborers. Object recognition software works sublimely well when it has access to data labeled by humans. Amazon logistic centers are automated to a very high degree full with sophisticated software for scheduling boxes, selecting items, continuously optimizing the deployment of material and workers, but certain tasks like filling boxes with delivery items are best done by humans. Automatic driving software is amazingly effective most of the time but requires a human to take over when something unexpected happens or some unforeseen situation emerges. So while AI can take over many tasks that were reserved for humans until recently, it is often not sufficiently adaptable or has the necessary insight to deal with corner cases or unexpected situations. And those tasks left for humans are sometimes appealing but very often they are mundane, tiring and lowly paid. In particular in the logistics and manufacturing industries the processes are often optimized for machines and steered by sophisticated algorithms with some tasks left for humans who have to adapt to the overall machinery. Because humans are so amazingly adaptable, can deal with all kinds of unexpected situation, and, after some time, become highly efficient at whatever task is thrown at them, they are assigned to the activities at which machines and AI still fall short. More often than not, these activities are poorly paid because they do not require a long education like filling boxes, carrying bags over staircases to the third floor, cleaning rooms full with random objects and materials, etc. This is probably the result of a combination of two facts: First, humans are optimized by evolution for tasks to navigate and manipulate a very complex physical environment. These tasks appear cognitively undemanding because our bodies and brains are so good at it that they require almost no conscious effort. But in reality these tasks are very difficult and AI is not yet sufficiently sophisticated and mature to handle them. Second, because the relevant faculties are innate to humans, everybody can do it without long or special education. Thus, as long as there is a supply of uneducated labor, salaries are driven to the bottom.

Categorization

The chapters on data, categorization and affect address a particularly uncanny aspect of modern AI: Machine learning algorithms do not work like human brains. They perceive the world distinctly different. This is exemplified by categorization tasks, and object identification in images is one specific categorization task. The COMPAS software, that I have previously discussed in the review of “We, the Robots”, is a case in point. COMPAS, short for Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions, is a popular software used in US courts for assessing criminal offenders. Trained with data from a database of criminal offenders COMPAS generates a score from 1 to 10 to indicate the estimated probability for future commitment of crimes. It is used regularly in criminal cases to assess the likelihood of future offenses of current criminal offenders. The software is trained on whatever data is available on the hard disk that stores the digitized records of past offenses. It does not perceive people as people, it does not understand feelings like shame and hate, desire for appreciation and power, pride, aspirations and loneliness. It does not understand the context of families and friends, social networks and social expectations. Human officers and judges can take all these aspects into account when looking at a criminal offender, but COMPAS does not do that and has therefore a radically different perception of people it assesses. Machine learning algorithms are deeply biased by the data they are trained with and by the implicit set of assumptions underlying their architecture.

In the chapter on affect Crawford illustrates this aspect with software that reads the emotions of people based on their facial expressions. The promise of such systems is to be able to detect when people lie, plan terrorist attacks, or have special psychiatric conditions. They are therefore demanded and promoted by security agencies and police in many countries, democratic and authoritarian. However, it is very curious that, despite the high expectations in such systems and their real-life deployment, there is no good scientific basis and no sufficient evidence that these systems can actually work. The underlying assumption of affect recognition systems is that emotional states can reliably be inferred from facial expressions. However, that seems to be shaky assumption.

In 2019, Lisa Feldman Barret led a research team that conducted a
wide-ranging review of the literature on interfering emotions from
facial expressions. They concluded firmly that facial expressions
are far from indisputable and are "not 'fingerprints' or
diagnostic displays" that reliably signal emotianal states, let
alone across cultures and contexts. based on all the current
evidence, the team observed, "It is not possible to confidently
infer happiness from a smile, anger from a scowl, or sadness from
a frown, as much of current technology tries to do when they are
applying what they mistakingly believed to be scientific facts."

(p 174)

So given this lack of clear evidence, that emotional states can be reliably inferred from the expression of a face, what can we expect from machine learning software that is deployed in job interviews, criminal investigations or counter terrorist operations to do exactly this? I am afraid we have to expect a lot of bad judgment with often dire consequences.

Today, AI is charged with categorization tasks in a wide range of applications by state actors, corporations and individuals. Emails are categorized into spam or no-spam, news are categorized into worthy of of communicating or not, job applicants are categorized into being worth to be invited for an interview or not, criminal offenders are being categorized into being a future threat or not, travelers are categorized to be a potential security threat or not, loan applications are being categorized into high risk or low risk. Categorization is not the same as decision making, and in most of these applications important decisions are still made by humans who consider the software to be a useful tool. And very often it is a useful tool, but its usefulness depends on two assumptions: first, the human decision maker understands the bias, hidden assumptions and limitations of these tools. Second, the human decision maker takes into account all the aspects not considered by the tool and factors both these other aspects and the tool’s limitations into the decision making process. Already today it is a safe assumption that these two conditions are rarely met and as AI technology advances, the categorization tools become more and more the decision makers. Since their perception of the world and of humans and human societies are distinctively non-human, this development will have dire consequences.

Power

In the final chapters Crawford discusses the impact of AI on the operation of states and corporations and on the power distribution. Her conclusions are as clear as they are depressing. The effect of AI is a massive increase of inequality and imbalance of power. Individuals, organizations and states who are powerful today will become more powerful in the future, because AI is (a) an exceedingly effective and general tool for all manners of monitoring, surveillance and control, and (b) it is increasingly expensive to acquire and deploy. Thus AI turns out to be a great amplifier of power differentials.

(AJ February 2023)

Born A Crime

2023-01-10T00:00:00+01:00

Born A Crime

Stories from a South African Childhood

Trevor Noah

One World, New York, 2016

Trevor Noah was born in 1984 in Johannesburg, South Africa, son to a Xhosa mother and Swiss father. At that time this was a criminal offense because of the Immorality Act of 1927, which was written to

prohibit illicit carnal intercourse between Europeans and natives
and other acts in relation thereto.

(p VII)

Hence the title of the book which describes Trevor Noah’s childhood and youth in Johannesburg. His mother was classified as black, his father as white and he himself as colored, which shaped his entire life. Because a relationship between a white and a black woman was illegal, his parents could not live together and Trevor could visit his father only in secret. He was an outsider in most schools he attended and most environments he lived because he was neither black nor white and did not identify as colored.

The odds of a colored kid growing up in the 1980s and 1990s in the suburbs of Johannesburg were poor because of routine violence, a deeply unjust system, and an almost complete absence of opportunities. However, Trevor had the privilege of an exceptional, fearless, smart and skilled mother that managed to allow Trevor to develop into a decent, sensible, and thoughtful person, against all odds. Despite being disadvantaged in every respect as black, as woman, as single mother, as poor, she navigated the system and carved out a decent life trajectory for herself and her children.

The book is not only very interesting in describing apartheid South Africa from the perspective of a colored kid, it is highly entertaining due to is vivid language. The events and stories reflect a very challenging environment, sometimes threading and dangerous, often surprising and unexpected, and always exciting. Never is Trevor Noah simplifying, never falling in traps of cliches, but he is always thoughtfully reflecting the wider context and always considering the historic reasons and the contradicting facets of the acting characters.

Trevor Noah in 2021. ( BY 3.0,). Trevor Noah in 2021. ( BY 3.0,).

I was, for instance, not aware that in South Africa there are parents giving names like “Hitler” or “Mussolini” to their kids. Trevor Noah explains how this happens. For a time Trevor was performing as DJ with a group of dancers, and their best dancer was named Hitler.

Hitler, although an unusual name, is not unheard-of in South Africa.
Part of it has to do with the way a lot of black people pick names. Black
people choose their traditional names with great care; those are
names that have deeply personal meanings. But from colonial times
through the days of apartheid, black people in South Africa were
required to have an English or European name as well - a name that
white people could pronounce, basically. So you had your English
name, your traditional name, and your last name: Patricia
Nombuiselo Noah.
Nine times out of ten, your European name was chosen at
random, plucked from the Bible or taken from a Hollywood celebrity
or a famous politician in the news. I know guys named after Mussolini
and Napoleon. And, of course, Hitler.

Westerners are shocked and confused by that, but really it’s a case
of the West reaping what it has sown. The colonial powers carved up
Africa, put the black man to work, and did not properly educate him.
White people don’t talk to black people. So why would black people
know what’s going on in the white man’s world? Because of that, many
black people in South Africa don’t really know who Hitler was. My
own grandfather thought “a hitler” was a kind of army tank that was
helping the Germans win the war. Because that’s what he took from
what he heard on the news. For many black South Africans, the story of
the war was that there was someone called Hitler and he was the reason
the Allies were losing the war. This Hitler was so powerful that at some
point black people had to go help white people fight against him -
and if the white man has to stoop to ask the black man for help fighting
someone, that someone must be the toughest guy of all time. So if you
want your dog to be tough, you name your dog Hitler. If you want
your kid to be tough, you name your kid Hitler. There is a good
chance you've got an uncle named Hitler. It's just a thing.

(p 194)

There is also this to consider. The name Hitler does not offend black South African because Hitler is not the worst thing that black South African can imaging. Every country thinks their history is the most important, and that is especially true in the West. But if black South Africans could go back in time and kill one person, Cecil Rhodes would come up before Hitler. If people in the Congo could go back in time and kill one person, Belgium’s King Leopold would come way before Hitler. If Native Americans could go back in time and kill one person, it would probably be Christoph Columbus or Andrew Jackson.

(p 195)

So in Europe and in America, yes, Hitler is the Greatest Madman in History. In Africa he’s just another strongman from the history books. In all my time hanging out with Hitler, I never once asked myself, “Why is his name Hitler?”. His name was Hitler because his mom named him Hitler.

(p 196)

So for the group and for most of their audience, the name was not an issue and not a topic of discussion. Only when they where asked to perform at a Jewish school, it ended up in disaster.

The book is full with interesting observations and thoughtful reflections. More than that it is a touching story of a brave mother and her sensible kid navigating a complex, unfair and challenging society.

(AJ January 2023)

We, the Robots?

2022-12-27T00:00:00+01:00

We, the Robots?

Regulating Artificial Intelligence and the Limits of the Law

Simon Chesterman

Cambridge University Press 2021

This book is a very practical, down to earth text and is concerned with the challenges the current state of AI and its further development poses or will pose for national and international regulation. In three parts the challenges, available tools and the possibilities are discussed.

A useful lens through which many of the issues are viewed is the utility-morality-legitimacy distinction.

Utility

AI algorithms, as well as their regulation, may increase or decrease the utility of decisions or results. High frequency trading may increase the efficiency of trading or open the door for misuse skewing the system in the process. Autonomous driving may safe costs, time and lives but may also redistribute risks and benefits unfairly. Criminal assessment software may increase the accuracy and uniformity of the assessment of the profile of an offender or it may apply the bias inherent in its training data and thus reinforce existing biases and leading to inferior decisions.

Understanding how AI may increase or decrease performance and quality is a precondition to put in place regulation that consistently improves utility rather than diminishes it.

Morality

There are tasks and decisions, it can be argued, that should not bet delegated to algorithms at all, at least not yet. Essentially all of today’s successful AI applications rely to a large extent on machine learning. Machine learning means that assessments, categorization, and decisions are based on historic data about the past.

The problems of morality with this approach become most apparent in the practice of the justice system. COMPAS, short for Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions, is a popular software used in US courts for assessing criminal offenders. Trained with data from a database of criminal offenders COMPAS generates a score from 1 to 10 to indicate the estimated probability for future commitment of crimes. It used regular in criminal cases such as in State v Loomis in 2016 in Wisconsin.

 'You´re identified,' Judge Scott Horne said, 'through the COMPAS assessment, as an individual
 who is at high risk to the community.' The judge then rules out
 probation 'because of the seriousness of the crime and because
 your history, your history on supervision, and the risk
 assessment tools that have been utilized, suggest that you´re
 extremely high risk to re-offend'.
 
 (p 63-64)

However, past data reflect crimes committed of people in the past and COMPAS training relates them to things like education, race, neighborhood, and other attributes that per se have nothing to do with a criminal record. This is the very definition of stereotyping. A cornerstone in all advanced legal systems is the principle, that offenders are punished for their own deeds and based on assessments of them as individuals. If software like COMPAS is used as an assessment tool, it violates this principle almost by definition as long as there is no technique to remove all unwanted biases and stereotyping from the training algorithm.

How subtle biases may creep in shows the use of DNA databases. DNA found at a crime scene are routinely matched against a DNA database which has been built up based on data from historic criminal cases. In the US black Americans are over-represented in the criminal records, due to a discriminatory system one could argue. This over-representation means that black American offenders are more likely to be identified by a match in the DNA database than white offenders, which in turn means that black Americans will continue to be over-represented in the DNA database in the future, simply due to the fact that they were over-represented in the past.

Many societies acknowledge that today’s state of affairs are not ideal and attempt to improve it. There is systematic discrimination against some groups based on their education, wealth, income, race, religion, etc., and this discrimination is engraved in the databases of criminal records, employment, health, and salary statistics. Using these data, and there is no other data to use, reinforces these biases. So far human judges, recruiters and other decision makers are much better suited than AI algorithms to understand these biases and, by way of their decisions, nudge the system towards the envisioned ideal.

While the implications of biases in training AI systems is most striking in justice systems, they are wide spread. Job recruiters, insurance companies, private schools and universities, car rental companies, banks for loan granting, and many other organization use AI systems based on machine learning for assessment and decision making. So this problem permeates societies already today and affects the majority of the people in many countries. And it is a question of morality and not utility, because this practice threatens to violate two moral principles: being fair to individuals based on their assessments as individual persons, and changing society towards an envisioned improved state.

Legitimacy

In a third class of decision processes the issue is not the inferiority of the results or the inadequacy of the available techniques to obtain a desirable output, but the process itself that has to meet certain requirements, whatever the results.

Some decisions are only legitimate if a certain procedure is followed, independent of the quality of the result. E.g. a decision by a court may not be accepted as legitimate if taken by an algorithm, but only when the court procedures are followed with due attention given to all arguments and with a careful reasoning and explanation. Thus, a given result obtained in one case by a fully transparent process and supported by detailed arguments may enjoy a high level of legitimacy, while the same result obtained by an opaque algorithm without any explanation may not be seen as legitimate at all. Many public decisions at all levels from the district to the national government fall into this category, because it involves allocation of common resources, prioritizing contested objectives and distribution of risks.

Another example is that the appointment of a government as a result of a general and fair election is considered legitimate, but if the same government is appointed by an opaque algorithm, it would in all likelihood not be accepted as legitimate.

Autonomy

Another dimension in the discussion of AI regulation is the autonomy of the AI agent. As long as AI algorithms are simply tools that assist humans in computing and data processing, humans are the agents that are in charge and responsible, also in a legal sense. However, as AI becomes more sophisticated it will also become more autonomous.

True autonomy of AI systems calls into question
long-standing assumptions that humans are the source, the means,
and the purpose of regulation.

(p 60)

The extent to which humans are in control, can be categorized into in the loop, above the loop and out of the loop.

In the loop means a human actor makes all the decision, supported only by algorithms, even if those algorithms are highly sophisticated and process vast amount of information way beyond the capabilities of humans. Still, humans decide how to assess and use the results of the algorithms and what actions are to be pursued.

Above the loop means that algorithms take decisions but are continuously monitored by humans. If something goes wrong, humans can detect it and step in to avoid gross failures or wrong decisions.

In out of the loop scenarios humans do not monitor the algorithms’ operation and will detect malfunction and misbehavior only by accident and long after the fact.

Technological advances push steadily towards greater autonomy of AI systems. Therefore it is mandatory that regulation keeps pace and, ideally even prepares for fully autonomous AIs ahead of time. All three dimensions discussed above, utility, morality, and legitimacy, remain relevant for fully autonomous AI systems and become even more pronounced.

For instance, societies will have to decide which processes and decisions handed over to AI systems and to which degree. The better the regulatory regime of nations and the international community is prepared for this development, the higher the chances that AI can be put to beneficial use.

(AJ December 2022)

Bleib Schön Sitzen

2022-12-04T00:00:00+01:00

Bleib Schön Sitzen

Eugen Freund

Wieser Verlag 2021

Eugen Freund war beim ORF von 1986 bis 2013, unter anderem USA Korrespondent und Nachrichtensprecher. 2014-2019 war er dann für die SPÖ Mitglied des Europäischen Parlaments.

Die Autobiographie mit dem Titel “Bleib schön Sitzen” behandelt vorwiegend, aber nicht nur, die Jugendjahre in Kärnten. Seine Eltern zogen bald nach seiner Geburt von Wien nach St. Kanzian am Klopeinersee, weil sein Vater 1951 dort eine Stelle als Gemeindearzt erhielt, die er bis zu seiner Pensionierung innehatte.

Der Schwerpunkt des Buches behandelt also die Zeit 1951 bis etwa 1970 in St. Kanzian und Kärnten, und führt die Veränderungen, die seither ins Land gezogen sind, lebhaft vor Augen. So musste der Gemeindearzt in den ersten Jahren seine Patientenbesuche zu Fuß, mit dem Pferdewagen oder dem Fahrrad durchführen, weil er erst 1954 ein Moped und 1955 ein Auto erstehen konnte. Die langen Strecken und die Witterung, insbesondere im Winter, machten dies zu einer Herausforderung. Nur die Herausforderungen den Bürokratie schienen noch größer gewesen zu sein, da es mehrere Jahre und viele Interventionen benötigte, bis der Gemeindearzt einen Kassenvertrag mit der Krankenkasse erhielt.

From (From Wikipedia; CC BY-SA 3.0)

Fragen rund um die kärntner-slowenische Bevölkerung und den damit zusammenhängenden Auseinandersetzungen ziehen sich wie ein roter Faden durch das Buch. Der Anteil der slowenischsprachigen Kärntner in der Gemeinde St. Kanzian fiel von 99% in Jahr 1880 auf unter 50% in den 1950er (Seite 56) und hat seither weiter abgenommen. Für ganz Kärnten ist die Zahl, die Slowenisch als Umgangssprache angaben, von 85000 im Jahr 1880 auf 42000 im Jahr 1951 bis auf 13000 im Jahr 2001 gefallen (siehe Wikipedia). Im Buch wird diese Entwicklung anhand persönlicher Erinnerungen und öffentlicher Ereignisse wie dem Ortstafelstreit und dem Erstarken der FPÖ unter Haider thematisiert.

Das Buch ist sehr lebendig geschrieben und ist eine lesenswerte Lektüre, insbesondere für jene, die persönliche Anknüpfungen an die Orte Unterkärntens und an manche der beschriebenen Personen haben.

(AJ Dezember 2022)

Kindred

2022-08-07T00:00:00+02:00

Kindred

Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art

Rebecca Wragg Sykes

Bloomsbury Sigma 2021

The origin of Homo Sapiens continues to fascinate, not least because there are so many things still unknown. The evolutionary lineage of humans split from gibbons ca 20 Ma (Million years ago), from orangutans, ca 17 Ma, from gorillas ca 10 Ma, and from chimpanzees and bonobos ca 5 Ma. We do not know how many hominin species have existed, but we have identified remains of 28 different species. Neanderthals split from the H. Sapiens lineage ca 800 ka (thousand years) ago. They may have developed in Europe as no Neanderthal fossil has been found in Africa or east of the Altai mountains. In Atapuerca, Northern Spain, fossils of a the earliest “Proto-Neanderthals” have been found and dated around 450-430 ka.

Evolutionary lineage of humans and great apes (Source: Wikipedia)

Lineages of homo sapiens, neanderthals and denisovans. All three specious have repeatedly interbreeded, which is visible in their genome. (page 3)

Denisova hominins are the Asian counterpart to the European Neanderthals, but compared to the rather rich set of Neanderthal fossils, we have found only few bones and teeth from Denisovans. Indeed, only in 2010 the first Denisovan individual has been identified, based on mitochondrial DNA extracted from a juvenile female finger bone excavated from the Siberian Denisova Cave in the Altai Mountains in 2008. Thus, the very recent technique of DNA analysis was instrumental in identifying the Denisovan species.

Denisovans and Neanderthals are slightly closer related to each other than to humans. The homo sapiens lineage has split from the Neanderthal-Denisovan lineage around 800 ka, and the latter split again shortly thereafter. But all three lineages have repeatedly interbreeded and mixed their genome. That this was not a very exceptional event is suggested by the astonishing find from 2012 in the Denisova cave in the Altai mountains of today’s Russia. A bone fragment from a leg or arm of 13 year old adolescent female has been identified as a first generation hybrid with a Denisovan father and a Neanderthal mother (Denisova 11, nicknamed “Denny”), dated to be between 80 ka and 118 ka old. Another Denisovan fossil has been found with the trace of interbreeding from 4-6 generations earlier. While Neanderthals have been European, Denisovans have been Asian. Today humans with the highest amount of Denisovan DNA are Aboriginal Australians, Near Oceanians, Polynesians, Fijians, Eastern Indonesians and Mamanwans (from the Philippines), but not East Asians. This suggests that interbreeding mostly occurred in the Pacific region but not mainland Asia.

Analysis of ancient DNA during the last 15 years have provided amazing new insights into the evolutionary history, but there are still many uncertainties because of the unknown precise mutation rate, the very limited amount of fossils and DNA available and the possibility of several scenarios that could explain the data we observe.

Artistic depiction of Neanderthals

This is how a typical neanderthal camp might have looked lik

Techniques Used in Archaeology

The archaeological techniques and methods have tremendously developed during the last decades, giving us new insights into materials used, tools manufactured, body anatomy and lifestyles.

Chemical analysis of bones and teeth tell us among other things, how long Neanderthals have been breastfeeding (as long as we do), what they ate (see picture) and what they did not eat, how long they lived after a bone fracture (sometimes very long which suggests support by others in the group), and many other fascinating details.

Microscopic analysis shows the micro wear on teeth and bones (animal and Neanderthal bones). From that we know, that they worked animal hides with their teeth and that 80% were right handed, which in turn tells us something about the asymmetricity of their brains, suggesting that the Neanderthal brain organization was probably rather similar to our own. From that and their societal organization we assume, that Neanderthals had language, but we do not know if it was as sophisticated as our own or much simpler.

The analysis of stone tools and the waste material of Neanderthal hearths has developed enormously leading to a very detailed understanding of the tools they used and how they manufactured them.

3-D reconstruction of a stone tool and all the splinters found in the waste makes it possible to reconstruct the manufacturing process: which splinter has been knapped off in which order. Also the speed and force to knapp off a particular splinter can be derived together with the tool used, such as a bone or another stone. This leads to a 4-D reconstruction of the manufacturing and means we know in great detail the manufacturing process of a tool: how long it took, which techniques have been used, which forces have been applied.

Also, the source of the material and tools found in particular places could often be identified. This tells us, how far Neanderthals moved around, how long they used their tools, which material and tools were considered most valuable, which tools and materials have been repaired and repurposed how many times. The chemical analysis of the stones tell us that Neanderthals have used colors, in particular ochre, red and black. Almost certainly they have also manufactured some devices for ornamental and artistic purposes. To let R. W. Sykes comment one such find:

 Thw single object sparked a cascade of scenarios, all imagined
 but archeologically supported. Sometime around 46 ka, a
 Neanderthal noticed stone shells eroding from limestone, and
 picked one up. She carried this tiny piece from place to place;
 kept it so long its surface became polished. Her fingeres pressed
 in special red colour, leaving a stain on her skin. Eventually,
 one day it dropped from its usual place - folded in or tied into
 leather - and unknowingly or not, she left it behind in the
 mountains.

 Had the shell been excavated from an early H. sapiens site, seeing
 this as symbolic brhaviour would be uncontroversial. Whether it
 had practical as well as aestetic use, it was unarguably precious.
 (page 254)

Determining the age of found artifacts is crucial for classifying and contextualizing finds. A number of chemical dating techniques have been developed.

Radiocarbon dating: The most common carbon isotop has 6 protons and 6 neurons in its nucleus, called ¹²C. ¹⁴C is a carbon isotope with two additional neutrons, which has exactly the same chemical properties, but it is not stable. It spontaneously decays into nitrogen ¹⁴N, when one neutron is transformed into a proton. That transformation occurs spontaneously and is independent of the temperate and the chemical environment but follows a simple exponential decay law with a half-life of 5730 years. This means that after 5730 years half of the ¹⁴C atoms have transformed themselves into ¹⁴N atoms.

This process can be used for dating organic material because during the lifetime of a creature ¹⁴C and ¹²C atoms will be used in the exact proportion as it is available in the atmosphere. After the death of the animal (or the human or the Neanderthal) the bones do not uptake new ¹⁴C atoms. That means that after 5730 years half of the ¹⁴C atoms are transformed into ¹⁴N atoms, and the relative proportion of ¹⁴C and ¹⁴N atoms tells us, when the animal has lived. If we find as much ¹⁴C as ¹⁴N, the animal has lived around 5730 years ago; if the relation of ¹⁴C to ¹⁴N is 1:1024, then the animal has live round 57300 years ago, because 2¹⁰=1024.

This method works well for dating organic material up to 60 ka ago; after that the amount of ¹⁴C is often too small to be determined with sufficient accuracy. The main problem of the method is contamination of the material to be studied.
Amino acid dating: All biological tissues contain amino acids. All amino acids except glycine can have two different configurations: “D” and “L”, which are mirror images of each other. With few exceptions, all living organisms keep their amino acids in the “L” configuration. But when the organism dies, control over the configuration ceases and the ratio of “D” to “L” moves from near 0 to 1. Hence, measuring the ratio of “D” to “L” in a sample of organic material allows to estimate the time since the creature died.

However, this process is temperature dependent, which means it is important to know the historic temperature development of the site, where the organic artifact has been found. As a rule of thumb, sites with a mean annual temperature of 30 °C have a maximum range of 200 ka and resolution of about 10 ka; sites at 10 °C have a maximum age range of ~2 Ma, and resolution generally about 20% of the age; at -10 °C the reaction has a maximum age of ~10 Ma, and a correspondingly coarser resolution.
Potassium–argon dating is a techniue for inorganic minerals. It is based on the radioactive decay of an isotope of potassium (K) into argon (Ar), with a half-live of 1.248 billion years. Thus, it can be used to determine the time when a mineral has solidified and it can be applied to minerals more then 100 ka old. Although its direct applicatin to arheology is limited, it is used to bracket the age of deposit layers, where archaeological artefacts have been found. This is possible for instance, if the deposit layer of interest has lava flows above and below it. This technique is very helpful for finding reference dates of deposit layers from more than 100 ka up to many Ma.

Archaeologists go to great length to extract the last bit of information from an excavation site. Sykes describes one such case:

 One last question: what did Neanderthals do with waste from their
 own bodies? The hominin dung in a hearth at El Salt has already
 been mentioned, and researchers took excavations here to a
 Lilliputanian scale. Using a vacuum hose to filter sediment
 down to 1mm, the hearth micro-stratigraphy was teased out. The
 burned-black old occupation surfaces under the fire showed a
 triple-phased structure, with concentrations of tiny lithics and
 coprolite biomarkers more abundant at the top and bottom.

 It looks like Neanderthals had first made a fire when arriving,
 then swept the floor and burned the waste, which included old
 faeces mixed animal dung and plant material. This feels like a
 'deep clean' on moving into a home, but there's also evidence from
 Abric Romani that bodily waste was routinely incinerated along
 with grass and potentially moss: most likely old bedding.

 (p 199)

Very detailed analysis of excavation sites reveal the organization of Neanderthal camps. Abric Romani, a site in north-eastern Spain at the feet of the Pyrenees has been studied to this end.

 The more ancient Level Ob has been subject to full-spectrum
 refitting, and -  translated from dry scientific description -
 the results are like a map allowing you to imaging dawn in a
 Neanderthal home 55,000 years ago, just after its occupants have
 left. Standing back against the rear wall, look down and your
 feet are surrounded by smashed-up teeth, jaws and possibly
 skulls. The stone hammers and anvils that processed deer, horse
 and aurochs still lie there. Straight in front of you, wisps of
 smoke rise from a large bonfire, in its ancient sense: fuelled by
 intensely burned butchery trash, obviously reused many times.
 
 As the sun rises to your right, it picks out a roughly circular
 mass of thousands of lithics and bone fragments: splittered
 ditritus from final butchery stages, plus more hammers. A greasy
 smell suggests that cooking happened here too. The ground is
 compressed: many feet have walked here, tired legs folded to sit,
 and where children poked the ground with sticks, there are small
 pieces of bone pressed down into underlying deposits. Look
 to the rockshelter's margins: the ground is comparatively clear,
 but things have still been happening, and at the western side
 there's the still bloodied skeleton of a cat, dragged spitting
 from its tree under last night's moon.
 
 Seeing such detail in how Neanderthals separated this space is
 remarkable [...] Even being conservative, the cumulative
 patterns point to at least two areas around here being active at
 the same time.
 
 (p 194)


 But the highest definition [in time] yet achieved for any
 Neanderthal site comes from another rockshelter less than 5km 
 south-west [of the El Salt unit in eastern Spain]. Since 2005,
 excavations at Abrice del Pastor have uncovered the entire
 60m2 surface, so we can be sure no hearths are
 unaccounted for. In Level IV, which is only 70cm thick, at least
 four sub-levels contain more than one occupation
 phase. Crucially, some phases have miniscule assemblages
 clustered around a single fire: IVc-1 even has more animal bone
 fragments (95) than lithics (22), which form just 6 RMUs [Raw
 Material Unit]. This particular phase looks exactly like the
 ephemeral trace of a few Neanderthals staying one night, doing a
 bit of knapping, eating, then moving on.
 
 (p 191)

What we know of their bodies and minds:

Neanderthal bodies were pretty similar to ours. They were a bit smaller and stronger. They were walking a lot, probably many kilometers every day on average. They were not as good runners as we are, but had more force in their arms. There are speculations about differences in the brain, but these are just that: speculations. It is safe to assume that they had language, but if it was as complex as or simpler than our own, we have no clue. Around 80% were right handed, which we know from the wear on their teeth.

The menu of neanderthals consisted mostly of meat (page 156)

Genetics

Due to 3-6 interbreeding periods all modern humans, except those of sub-Saharan origin, have Neanderthal genes: between 1.7-2.6%. Western Europeans have the lowest proportion (<2%) and Indigenous Americans, Asians and Oceaneans have more (>=2.2%). Not everybody has the same set of genes and altogether 20% of the Neanderthal genome is still present in humans. From that perspective, Neanderthals are not completely but only 80% extinct.

Neanderthals’ genome was less diverse than humans and also less diverse than Denisovans. This means that they were probably living in bands of 10-50 individuals with less frequent interchange between bands, than comparable human groups had.

Extinction

Several theories about the cause of extinction have been put forward. Among them are climate change, strong competition by homo sapiens, and diseases. But none of these theories can be substantiated by strong evidence.

(From https://www.agci.org/iron/history/climate-change-prehistoric-era)

Consider climate change. Neanderthals have lived for 600 ka, a period which has seen very significant changes of the climate. Neanderthals went extinct around 40 ka ago. During that time the climate became gradually colder, being around 7 °C colder than today. But during the whole period when Neanderthals lived this was no exception. In fact this was rather the norm with periods that were 2 °C colder still and at some times the climate was up to 3 °C warmer than today. Thus, Neanderthals have survived several dramatic climate changes and there is no explanation, why the last one should have been particularly devastating.

A similar argument can be given regardiing the competition with homo sapiens. During their whole period of their existence, Neanderthals have coexisted and competed with other hominins, and they have several times interbreeded with each other. We have no evidence that around 40 ka ago this competition has become more severe.

It should also be noted, that non-continuation of lineages of hominins was rather the norm than the exception. For instance, living Europeans did not descend from any of the H. sapiens living in Europe at the time of the Neanderthals, but they have been replaced by later migrants. So, not only the Neanderthals but all homo sapiens that lived around 50 ka in Europe have discontinued and been replaced by new immigrants.

Neanderthals continue to fascinate us and the book by Rebecca Wragg Sykes is a comprehensive and accessible summary of what we today know of our cousins, who are not quite extinct. By paying attention to details and by often extensively discussing the arguments for and against a particular hypothesis, the book gives lively insight into the developing knowledge about Neanderthals. It shows how quickly archaeology progresses and how much more we know today compared to 15 or 20 years ago. In particular DNA analysis has opened up new avenues that will take years to explore. Hence, in the coming years we can expect the emergence of new, exciting insights into the Neanderthals’, and our own, past.

(AJ August 2022)

Conscience

2022-06-26T00:00:00+02:00

Conscience

The Origins of Moral Intuition

Patricia S. Chruchland

Norton & Company, 2019

Conscience is a major component of the assessment and decision making system in the human brain. By introspection, we all have an experience of our own, private conscience and how it assesses a situation and guides our actions. Our conscience talks to us when we see someone in need in the street, when we observe two children playing in the sandbox, one being obviously mean to the other, when we note that an acquaintance treats her two children unjust, punishing one when the other would deserve it, when we read about rising inequality or child abuse in the newspaper, and on many other daily occasions.

We are not alone with feeling the strong force of conscience. The records of history and literature are full of references to its powerful voice.

I cannot and will not recant anything, for to go against conscience is neither right nor safe. Here I stand, I can do not other, so help me God. Amen.
 (Martin Luther)

There comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but he must take it because conscience tells him it is right.
 (Martin Luther King Jr., A Testament of Hope: The Essential
 Writings and Speeches)

If all the world hated you and believed you wicked, while your own conscience approved of you and absolved you from guilt, you would not be without friends.
  (Charlotte Brontë, Jane Eyre)

Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it.
  (Leo Tolstoy, A Confession)

A Native American elder once described his own inner struggles in this manner: Inside of me there are two dogs. One of the dogs is mean and evil. The other dog is good. The mean dog fights the good dog all the time. When asked which dog wins, he reflected for a moment and replied, The one I feed the most.
  (George Bernard Shaw)

Character is doing what you don’t want to do but know you should do.
   (Joyce Meyer)

Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties.
    (John Milton, Areopagitica)

In matters of conscience, the law of the majority has no place.
   (Mahatma Gandhi)

The only tyrant I accept in this world is the ‘still small voice’ within me. And even though I have to face the prospect of being a minority of one, I humbly believe I have the courage to be in such a hopeless minority.
   (Mahatma Gandhi)

The one thing that doesn’t abide by majority rule is a person’s conscience.
   (Harper Lee, To Kill a Mockingbird)

No guilt is forgotten so long as the conscience still knows of it.
   (Stefan Zweig, Beware of Pity)

One remarkable, often mentioned feature is, that the judgments of the inner voice called conscience is not subject to majority vote and it applies, whatever others may think; it applies even if nobody else knows about your thoughts or deeds.

So who’s voice is this inner voice? What is the source of our conscience?

Patricia Churchland’s answer is a biological one and the evidence she marshals for her case is strong. Conscience is wired into our brains, it serves a distinct function and has been selected for due to evolutionary benefits.

Where does our conscience come from?

Although the most of the book discusses biological arguments and studies with brain computer tomography scans, recording signals from neurons, measuring neurotransmitter activities, and the like, Churland devotes one chapter to the main philosophical schools that propose to explain the origin of conscience. She distinguishes two broad categories: rule based morality and wisdom seeking.

Rule based morality

Churchland reviews three main possible foundations of rule based morality and rejects them as being flawed: religion, pure reason and utilitarianism.

Religion

Using a religion as foundational basis of morality has the problem that there are several competing religions and there is no independent way of deciding, which one is right or more basic. Even within a religion there are branches and sects that do not agree. Also, religious leaders routinely find many reasons for exceptions from the strict religious rules. For instance the ten commandments of Christianity have been systematically broken by the highest Christian leaders throughout the 2000 years of Christian history. Moreover, there are religious systems like Buddhism or Confucianism that do not offer a set of clear rules but are nonetheless certainly not ethically inferior, such as Buddhism.

A fundamental and subtle problem of any religion based morality has been beautifully laid out by Plato in Euthyphro:

 > As they are walking to court Euthyphro confidently explains to
 > Socrates that the Gods are the source of right and wrong,
 > giving the impression that he thinks Socrates is a bit witless
 > to ask about the origin of morality. Socrates muses, Do the
 > gods say something is right because it *is* right (hence is it
 > right on independent grounds), or is something right because
 > the gods *say* that it is right (saying makes it so)?
 >
 > (p 153)

Here is a fundamental dilemma of all religion based morality: If we accept the first option, then the Gods are only the conveyors of moral information, but not their origin. If we accept the second option, then whatever the Gods say, is right, even if it feels horribly wrong.

Phrased in this way, neither alternative is attractive and feels like a solid ground on which to base morality or a grand ethics.

Pure reason

Proponents of this category are Thomas Aquinas, Kant, and the contemporary philosopher Thomas Nagel.

Thomas Aquinas explained

all acts of virtue are prescribed by the natural law: since each one’s reason naturally dictates to him to act virtuously.
(<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Aquinas#Ethics>)

Immanuel Kant formulated his vision of rationality based ethics:

The ground of obligation must be looked for, not in the nature of man nor in the circumstances in the world in which he is placed, but solely a priori in the concepts of pure reason.
 (p156)

Thomas Nagel rephrases this position in modern language:

People have, to greater or lesser degrees, a capacity for reasoning that follows autonomous standards appropriate to the subjects in question, rather than in slavish service to evolutionary given instincts merely filtered through cultural forms or applied in novel environments. Such reflection, reasoning, judgment and resulting behavior seem to be autonomous in the sense that they involve *exercises of though that are not themselves significantly shaped by specific evolutionary given tendencies, but instead follow independent norms appropriate to the pursuits in question.
  (p154)

For Churland this is hard to swallow and she comments:

according to this approach, if rules are proper moral rules, they reflect “independent, stable moral truths” apprehended by our rational faculty. Independent in this context means independent of social instincts. (I am repeating this because I am still incredulous at the statement of this position.) The proper moral rules - the real ones, as it were - are universal, and hence, cannot vary across cultures. Any culture that does not adhere to those rules is morally wrong. In short, the proper rules are rather like stable mathematical truths that never vary. The truth does not vary, even if cultural beliefs vary. Everywhere, 2+2=4.
 (p154ff)

The problem is to define and agree on what pure reason or rationality is. It is therefore substituted with consistency. A set of rules must be consistent and cannot contradict itself. Further, the assumption goes, people do not agree to rules that put themselves at a disadvantage, because that would not be rational. However, that can in fact happen and Churchland refers to fanatics as examples:

consider a real Nazi rule that children with autism should be euthanized. A committed Nazi on the Kantian team might eagerly agree that this rule should apply to all people under all conditions, even himself, were he unfortunate enough to be born with autism. He is not contradicting himself. According to Kant therefore, the consistent Nazi does rationally endorse that rule, and thus the rule is a moral rule. Notice, that any run-of-the-mill fanatic or extreme ideologue can adopt the Nazi tactic. All he has to do is be logically consistent. All he has to do is not contradict himself. Feelings of aversion or disgust, in the Kantian view, are irrelevant.
(p157)

Utilitarianism

Utilitarianism has become influential in the 19th century promoted by Jeremy Bentham, John Stuart Mill and others. Essentially it says

Act so as to produce the greatest happiness for the greatest number.
 (p161ff)

While this principle has been used as guide in formulating legislature with significant benefits, there are severe difficulties when considered as foundation for morality. First, happiness is impossible to universally define for a species as varied as homo sapiens. The preferences, inclinations, interests and potentials are just so different across countries, cultures and times, that any attempt for a precise definition seems hopeless; in particular, because the utilitarian principle requires to quantify happiness and do arithmetic on it. Furthermore, this principle may suggest to endorse actions that we otherwise find repulsive, like “producing babies to harvest their organs, assuming a few are sacrificed and many are saved” (p163), or executing a few leaders of an insurrection to give stability and prosperity to the country. Finally, a tyranny of the majority against a minority may be perfectly fine by utilitarian standards but contradict the conscience of many of us.

If applied rigorously, the utilitarian principle seems to be as inadequate a foundation for morality as rationality or religion. So what then is the basis of our conscience?

Wisdom seeking

Wisdom seekers reject the idea that a set of rules serve well in describing moral behavior or guiding people in leading a virtuous life. Churchland lists Buddhism, Aristotle, Adam Smith and David Hume falling into this camp.

[The Dalai Lama] explained that strict rules could be an impediment, whereas flexible guidelines were more apt to aid real-life decision-making that involved an individual’s particular history and situation. Stories, admirable role models, and the development of strong social habits were more effective as teaching tools than was rote rehearsal of inflexible rules.

(p 149)

Aristotle took a similar stance in his Nicomachean Ethics.

Aristotle’s view was that balance in moral judgment, as in practical judgment generally, is a skill. He thought we would all do well to culture that skill as effectively as possible, as a defense against social tumult, and as a way of getting through trouble.

(p 143)

Churchland argues that the concept of wisdom seeking as basis for our conscience is more in line with biological evidence. Moral judgment is a skill, like walking or language, that our brain is strongly predisposed to acquire but that has to be learned, improved and refined in a social context by observing and interacting with others.

Reward and value system

Churchland contends that there are no rules out there that form a basis for morality independent of humans, because the origin of our conscience is that humans have to solve a constraint satisfaction problem to make decisions. When making decisions like which prey to pursue, which mate to select, which fellow human to befriend or to punish, we have to consider many constraints and objectives. Constraints are due to practical limitations of resources, energy and time. The expected actions of others, be them friends or foes, have also to be considered in this equation. Objectives of actions are to maximize the availability of resources, like food or money, to maximize the probability of survival or prosperity, etc.

To deal with these complexities the human brain has a reward and value system, that guides through the decision making and allows to learn from observation and own experience.

The reward system for assessment of social and non-social sitations in the human brain. (From Ruff, C., Fehr, E. The neurobiology of rewards and values in social decision making. Nat Rev Neurosci 15, 549–562 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn3776)

The reward system evaluates the expected outcomes of a decision and assigns values to them quantifying how beneficial these outcomes will be. Each decision always has many implications which have to be weighed against each other. Eating a cake or a fish all by myself will maximize my nutrient intake, but sharing with friends will give me good-will which could be beneficial in the future. So the reward based decision system evaluates the possible outcomes of a decision, weighs the pros and cons against each other and then decides. After the decision is taken, the actual outcome is observed and again evaluated. If the predicted values are identical with the actually observed values, my brain has obviously a very good model of the world. But more often than not the predicted values are different from the actual values which is an opportunity to learn and improve the model of the world.

This process is called re-enforcement learning. The method works for my own actions, when I predict the consequences of my decisions and learn from my mistakes, but it works as well by observing others. To predict the consequences of other people’s decisions and then compare them with the actually observed consequences, is also a powerful learning method. Even better, we observe the values that other people (role models) assign to situations and use them in our future predictions. This is called imitation learning and is so powerful because we do not need to observe the actual consequences of an action. We rely on and use the value prediction of our parents, elders and other role models. That is a tremendous shortcut to learning and is part of the basis for humans being a social species and being able to base our knowledge on what previous generations have already learned.

There is empirical evidence that reward based decision making is realized by the brain circuitry. The reward system evaluates both social and non-social situations and there is some evidence that the underlying mechanism is the same for both, although they use different facts and knowledge.

Since humans are a highly adaptive and intensely social species, the actual values assigned to situations have to be learned. They are not hardwired in the DNA and fixed at birth, but they are developed during childhood and refined throughout life.

Thus the voice of conscience, according to this theory, comes from the reward and value system that has been configured throughout childhood by means of imitation and re-enforcement learning. This theory explains nicely why it is culture dependent and why there are no fixed rules that are universal and independent from our biology and culture. It can also explain why the voice of conscience is often clear and strong but its origin is not subject to introspection. The reward and value system has been learned over a period of many years, but the specific, countless observations and experiences that were the basis of this learning, are not recorded and not available to our introspection.

What do we know today?

Computer Tomography Scanner. (From John Hopkins University https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org)

The book describes and reports many experimental studies of brain signal recordings, computer tomography scans and more cruel experiments with animals, that shed light on specific aspects of the inner workings of the brain. Although there are many fascinating examples and insights, described in a vivid and engaging language, to some degree I feel that there are large, white areas on the map of our understanding of the brain, which are not properly acknowledged as such.

To give an example, chapter 2, “Getting Attached”, left me a bit confused because I did not really figure out, what we know about how attachment works at the neuron circuit level.

The emphasis in the chapter is on oxytocin and other neurotransmitters, and how they are implicated in bonding behavior. In a key study prairie voles and montane voles are compared. Prarie voles are monogamous, mating with one partner for life, and montane voles are polygamous, they mate and separate. It has been found that the key cause for this difference is the difference in the density of oxytocin receptors in the nucleus accumbens and vasopressin receptors in the ventral pallidum, both are subcortical structures in the brain. The causal connection could be established by:

Montane vole. (By USFWS - Wildlife Photo Gallery: Pahranagat National Wildlife Refuge, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=59007519)

blocking oxytocin receptors lead to recuced pair-bonding in prairie voles;
injecting oxytocin into the brains of virgin prairie voles led to pair-bonding (which otherwise only occurs after mating);
genetically increasing the vasopressin receptors in the ventral pallidum in prairie voles increased attachement behaviors;
genetically increasing the vasopressin receptors in the ventral pallidum in montane voles caused them to behave like prairie voles.

Then the text explains the neural circuit connections between regions in the brain that contribute to “Wanting” and “Liking”, and the reward system that generates pleasure, pain regulation, mating and maternal behavior such as milk production, cuddling and licking, stress regulation, recognition of ones off-spring, mate, kin and friends. These neural pathways often use the same neurotransmitters like oxytocin.

I acknowledge and appreciate the main conclusions, which are that oxytocin and other neurotransmitters play a major role on the covered social behavior, and that certain brain regions and neural pathways contribute to this behavior. However, I feel that eventually we desire a deeper level of understanding. For instance, there are brain structures involved in “Wanting” and “Liking” and in recognizing ones offspring, such as the nucleus accumbens in the subcortex. But how exactly is the recognition of an off-spring achieved? What is the neural circuit that does it and how does it do it? And how is the recognized individual valued as an offspring that needs to be protected and cared for?

The text does not explain, if we can answer these questions or not. Do we know the details, and they are too complex to explain here, or simply out of scope? Or do we have no idea how that works at the neural circuit level? The text somehow seems to suggest that we already know an awful lot of what needs to be known except a few details that will be found out soon. But to me the level of understanding that really matters, the details of the neural circuitry that generates the social behavior, is missing; or not described, anyway. The focus on the role of oxytocin and other neurotransmitters seem to me a focus on something that we can measure and validate, while ignoring the aspects that are needed for a deeper understanding, because they are harder to decipher. I definitely see the value of what is explained and the great progress that has been made in understanding some causal effects of neurotransmitters, brain structures and brain connections, but what I miss is a description of what we still lack, what we still need to know to obtain a real, deep understanding of the phenomena.

In summery it seems to me we have very good overall understanding of how our brain works and how it produces conscience, and other relevant behavior like decision making and valuation of situations. We also know many bits and pieces of specific mechanisms, specific brain regions, neuro-transmitters, and relation to genetic code in the DNA. At the same time lots of fundamental understanding is still missing. We do not know how specific content is represented in the brain, or where it is stored. E.g. how is the preference of mating partners, if they are tall, or heavy, healthy or sickly, represented? Which parts of the brain circuit, which neurons would I have to change if I would want to increase the preference for smaller size of mating partners? It seems we still know little about the micro-level brain circuitry and how it relates to the functions of storing, communicating, and manipulating content.

At the same time progress seems to be fast and I expect that within two decades we will have a much more complete understanding of architecture and functionality of the brain circuitry on all levels from Neurons up to the manipulation of symbolic representation of rela world situations.

(AJ June 2022)